Session Summary
The scenario method is a useful, creative, and increasingly popular way for managers to reframe their perspective and improve their organisational resilience. The course shows how to recognise the driving forces that will affect the future business context and consider the present-day implications. By building detailed and imaginative narratives, participants will learn how to confront uncertainty and become more confident in conditions of change. The lecture content contains the cutting-edge practice of the scenario method and the blended approach permits flexibility, agility, and collaborative project work. Why is the scenario method so important? Because in economics the emphasis on choice is because we live in a world of scarcity. The conditions of uncertainty mean we require imagination. Scarcity and uncertainty are the context. Choice and imagination are the consequence.
Objectives
At the end of this course participants will:
- Build and use scenarios.
- Think creatively about alternate futures.
- Link scenario planning to strategic issues.
Key topics
- Understand and assess alternative ways to approach scenario planning
- History and development of scenarios as a methodology
- Development of engaging scenarios
- Analysis of important long-term trends
- Recognition of decision making under conditions of uncertainty
- Ability to present work in an engaging manner
- Openness to ambiguity
- Development of ideas in a team setting
About the lecturer:
Anthony J. Evans, PhD
is professor of economics and Problem Solving and Analytics at COTRUGLI. His work has been covered by most broadsheet newspapers, and he has appeared on Newsnight and the BBC World Service .
He specialises in teaching Managerial Economics at the MBA and Executive MBA level. Using a combination of lectures, case discussion and practical simulations he has introduced over 2,000 current and future managers to the economic way of thinking. He has taught for ESCP Europe, Danube University, and Helsinki School of Economics, as well as designing and managing custom programmes. He received his PhD in Economics from George Mason University, USA.
Prepartion for the workshop:
Reading pack:
- “3 scenarios for how COVID-19 plays out: Morgan Stanley” by Ethan Wolff-Mann, Yahoo! Finance, 28th February 2020
- “3 Scenarios for How Putin Could Actually Use Nukes” by Gregg Herken, Avner Cohen and George Moore, Politico, 16th May 2022
- “Planning for a life without death or smartphones: what it’s like to be a futurologist“, by Amelia Heathman, Evening Standard, 26 July 2018
Required reading:
- Wilkinson, Laurence, 1995, “How to Build Scenarios” Wired Magazine
- Ramirez, R., Churchhouse, S., Palermo, A., and Hoffman, J., “Using scenario planning to reshape strategy“, MIT Sloan Management Review, Summer 2017
Pre course quiz:
Deadline for pre course quiz: March 18, 2024
About COTRUGLI Business School:
COTRUGLI Business School enters its 20th year of operation with a reputation of the leading business school in the SEE region.
The COTRUGLI Program was designed by an international group of experts, in accordance with current economic and business education trends in the world. Besides our core program, the Executive MBA, COTRUGLI offer In-House education, Consulting as well as the Open programs which cover a variety of business topics.
COTRUGLI programs attract participants from all countries of the region and with different professional backgrounds – from engineers and doctors to consultants and bankers – highly motivated and action driven senior executives striving for modern-day knowledge which they can put into practice right away. Instead of teaching readymade formulas, this innovative program enables participants to create their own formulas under a guardian eye of world’s best professors and gurus.
Impressive positive reviews and evaluations that we received from the world leading experts and institutions have opened the doors for us to work with the best in the field of business education.
What makes us special?
- Work with respected lecturers from world’s top business schools
- Superior program quality mainly focused on business practice and applicability
- Innovative topics combined with unconventional working approach
- Interactive and “live” workshops where attendees acquire knowledge through exchange of their business experiences
- Exceptional international networking
Being constantly challenged by the lecturers from the best business schools in the world the program participants challenge their own perspectives. The aim of all COTRUGLI programs is to inspire the participants for constant personal development; it drives their leadership skills and helps create your new self.
Why should you join us?
Expand your knowledge
Experience COTRUGLI MBA atmosphere
Networking opportunities
